Back in 2018, it took just eight words to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
During that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.
The Shift of Stance and Settled Issues
In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on Europe
Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.
David Lammy has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- First, he thinks a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.
An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Considerations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction because of immigration. It includes only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018
All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Danger & A Wise Memory
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
