A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
