Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
